BY FRANK GIASE
Star-Ledger Staff
FIFA is the only world governing body that seems to make up the rules as it goes along. In that sense, president Sepp Blatter is a smart guy. He knows that no national team coach is going to level any criticism in the year leading up to a World Cup because the punishment could very well be a place in the Group of Death next summer.
FIFA has been criticized in the past for its seeding process, which included, among other things, a combination of past World Cup performances. Conspiracy theorists believe the process is rigged because the process keep changing.
Whatever the truth is, the mystery seems to keep the coaches in line.
The draw for the 2006 World Cup, with a new seeding process that is expected to give weight to the much-maligned FIFA world rankings, will be held on Friday. Today, the seeds for all 32 teams, as well as the criteria for the seeding process, will be announced.
The United States is on the bubble for getting one of the eight top seeds. When the United States won the CONCACAF Gold Cup last summer, coach Bruce Arena was asked about the team possibly getting a top seed. He promptly dismissed the question, saying the team had yet to even qualify.
Fair enough.
But when Arena was approached again at the MetroStars-Revolution playoff game on Oct. 22 at Giants Stadium -- seven weeks to the day the U.S. qualified for the World Cup -- he railed at reporters.
"What does a seed mean?" he said. "How did (defending champion) France do at the last World Cup? How did Portugal do in our group? That doesn't mean anything."
Actually, it does mean something. Something very important. It means you avoid getting the "other" seven best teams in the world in your group.
Recently, Arena softened his stance. "If a CONCACAF team has the possibility of being a (top-)seeded team at the 2006 FIFA World Cup final draw, the United States has done what is necessary in the region to deserve it," he said.
And he's right.
The United States won the Gold Cup, finished first in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying and is ranked eighth in the world.
And yet Mexico is ranked one place higher despite losing in the Gold Cup quarterfinals and finishing second to the U.S. in World Cup qualifying. The teams split their qualifiers, each winning at home.
Blatter said the rankings, in which a team can drop by not playing, or fall below a team it just beat because it lost a meaningless friendly while the other team won one, might count toward seeding this year.
If that's the case, Arena has reason to be worried. On Nov. 12, the U.S. tied Scotland, 1-1, with a young team fielded to gain experience, while Mexico won that day. In the next monthly ranking, Mexico jumped one spot ahead of the United States.
And that's where they stand now. So if Mexico winds up with a higher seed than the United States, Arena has reason to be upset.
Whatever FIFA decides, here's what we know for sure. The 32 teams will be divided into four pots, seeds one through four, and will fill eight four-team groups. No teams from the same qualifying region can play each other in the first round, except for Europe, which has 14 teams in the tournament. Germany, as host, and Brazil, as defending champion, are automatic top seeds.
Based on past World Cup performance -- with penalties for not qualifying -- and strength of 2006 qualifying games, here's how the teams should be seeded,
Top seeds: Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Italy, England, France, United States. Second seeds: Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Czech Republic, Croatia.
Third seeds: Costa Rica, Ecuador, Paraguay, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Switzerland, Tunisia.
Fourth seeds: Trinidad and Tobago, Australia, Ukraine, Serbia-Montenegro, Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo.
Spain drops a level because it lost in the quarterfinals in 2002, didn't get out of group play in 1998 and needed to win a playoff to qualify this time. And it's ranked sixth in the world!
Tunisia bumps up a notch because it qualified for the past two World Cups while the other four African teams are making their debuts.
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Originally Posted by TripleRLtd
( I live in hope though, even though I think these rankings are obviously a 'pile of pooh' - he says remembering the Northern Ireland match ! 
)
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