Reviving the 'Misery Index'

From the NY Times

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That first misery index, invented by the late Arthur Okun, an economic adviser to former Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, was an easy-to-grasp gauge that combined monthly unemployment figures with the annual percent change in the consumer price index, otherwise known as inflation.

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Though it has been cited in practically every national (and many local) elections for more than a generation, this misery index was apparently not good — or, perhaps, complicated — enough for the Kerry camp.

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Since the old "misery index" makes Pres. Bush look good, Kerry's camp needed to reinvent it in an attempt to make Pres. Bush look bad.

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So they collected seven data points (median family income, college tuition, health-care costs, gas prices, bankruptcy rates, homeownership rate and private-sector job growth) to make their own index.

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Originally Posted by JaxSon

From the NY Times





Since the old "misery index" makes Pres. Bush look good, Kerry's camp needed to reinvent it in an attempt to make Pres. Bush look bad.

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Put a sock in it and quit with the politics for a while!

It's the same as the argument that was raised about Bush "stealing" the election. The fact that the Electoral College has been in effect for so many years, and been known to respond differently from the popular vote was known all too well already. But as far as anyone against Bush is concerned, he broke the rules...some how or another...

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Originally Posted by jitBob

Put a sock in it and quit with the politics for a while!

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Why, NooNoo is nowhere to be found... :p

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Originally Posted by Ya_know

Why, NooNoo is nowhere to be found... :p

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Now ya_didn't get a fat head from the comliment in the other thread did ya? (a compliment I SOMETIMES agree with, by the way)

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Originally Posted by jitBob

Put a sock in it and quit with the politics for a while!

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I've been quiet for about a week now.

NooNoo said that techs or myself could not participate in political posts but yet techs is still out there ranting about Bush's failed economic policies, etc.

So, I'm back for now...

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Originally Posted by JaxSon

I've been quiet for about a week now.

NooNoo said that techs or myself could not participate in political posts but yet techs is still out there ranting about Bush's failed economic policies, etc.

So, I'm back for now...

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What's good for the goose is good for the gander...

So which one of you is the girl goose… :p

I don't know but please stop craping on my lawn. I'm gonna need a dozer to get to the pond.

Just to add to the fire:

Median family income. Why not use family net wealth? The true measure of how a family is doing economically is how wealthy they are, not how much they earn. You can have $3 million in your checking account and a $3 million dollar paid-for home, and not work. Your family income would be low .. but are you miserable? I don't think so.

College tuition. Most American families aren't paying any college tuition. What kind of a measurement is this?

Health Premiums. What does this figure mean to families who have health insurance as a job benefit?

Gasoline prices. Adjusted for inflation, they were higher in the early 1980's.

Home Ownership. The highest in history.

Job Growth This doesn't matter to someone who already has a job. Besides .. jobs are being created right and left right now.

Personal Bankruptcies. A bankruptcy doesn't make me miserable unless the person declaring bankruptcy owes me money.

This moronic index ignores economic growth and inflation ... things that affect everyone! The big question here is how in the world can the mainstream American media pay any attention to this BS without laughing itself into unconsciousness? The answer, of course, is that most of the people who are reporting on Kerry's ridiculous index are people who want to see Kerry win in November.

The real lesson to be learned here is that Kerry is campaigning on misery. His election hinges on whether or not he can convince voters that they are really not quite so happy and comfortable as they think they are.

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Originally Posted by paraflyer

Just to add to the fire:

Median family income. Why not use family net wealth? The true measure of how a family is doing economically is how wealthy they are, not how much they earn. You can have $3 million in your checking account and a $3 million dollar paid-for home, and not work. Your family income would be low .. but are you miserable? I don't think so.

College tuition. Most American families aren't paying any college tuition. What kind of a measurement is this?

Health Premiums. What does this figure mean to families who have health insurance as a job benefit?

Gasoline prices. Adjusted for inflation, they were higher in the early 1980's.

Home Ownership. The highest in history.

Job Growth This doesn't matter to someone who already has a job. Besides .. jobs are being created right and left right now.

Personal Bankruptcies. A bankruptcy doesn't make me miserable unless the person declaring bankruptcy owes me money.

This moronic index ignores economic growth and inflation ... things that affect everyone! The big question here is how in the world can the mainstream American media pay any attention to this BS without laughing itself into unconsciousness? The answer, of course, is that most of the people who are reporting on Kerry's ridiculous index are people who want to see Kerry win in November.

The real lesson to be learned here is that Kerry is campaigning on misery. His election hinges on whether or not he can convince voters that they are really not quite so happy and comfortable as they think they are.

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See my top post above.

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Originally Posted by jitBob

See my top post above.

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I for one found what paraflyer said to be quite well thought out, and inquisitive. Both of your responses on the other hand, seems to me are far less than mature. It is that behavior that got us in trouble the last time. What do ya say you get a little more intellectual on the topic, or stay the hell out!?!

:bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor: :bor:

Times change. For example health care costs are now a far larger and needed to be taken into account. I can't find the year when it was invented but the reported index goes back to at least 1980. Almost 25 years and maybe back to Kennedy.

Interestingly despite a 200 million dollar ad campaign to convince Americans the economy it going well a Newseek poll shows 55 percent of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy.
Not too mention that Bush has used the IRS to illegally try to convince Americans of how good the economy is and how good his policies are. See my post Your tax dollars at work.

I think a good slogan for the coming election should be:
"President Bush-the more you know about him the more you realize you know more than him"

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Originally Posted by Ya_know

I for one found what paraflyer said to be quite well thought out, and inquisitive. Both of your responses on the other hand, seems to me are far less than mature. It is that behavior that got us in trouble the last time. What do ya say you get a little more intellectual on the topic, or stay the hell out!?!

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Oh, I see. This "Job Growth This doesn't matter to someone who already has a job. Besides .. jobs are being created right and left right now. " is an example of well thought out and inquisitive thinking. Try again Buckwheat! In the mean time GIVE IT A REST!

Once again the BIG LIE method of debate. Forces those who are interested in debate to waste their time rebutting line by line. And they always hope people will believe whatever they hear first.
Ok, Paraflyer line by line why your arguments are false:

Median family income. Why not use family net wealth? The true measure of how a family is doing economically is how wealthy they are, not how much they earn. You can have $3 million in your checking account and a $3 million dollar paid-for home, and not work. Your family income would be low .. but are you miserable? I don't think so.

You are talking about multimillionaires. Of course THEIR not miserable. But 95 percent of the people in this country can't live out their lives on what is in the bank plus what they can get when they sell their home and now have to pay rent. They judge their prosperity on their INCOME from their JOBS.

College tuition. Most American families aren't paying any college tuition. What kind of a measurement is this?

It is a PART of how people judge their misery. For millions and millions of Americans the cost of sending their CHILDREN to college has become a HUGE burden. And the costs of the better schools are now beyond them. And for many parents sending their children to college is the MOST important thing to them.

Health Premiums. What does this figure mean to families who have health insurance as a job benefit?

You missed so completely on this its scary. Many families have seen their co-payments and deductibles rise from insignificant to a major drain on their income. And millions and millions of people have lost their health insurance or don't have it at work. For many of them health insurance is now out of their reach.

Gasoline prices. Adjusted for inflation, they were higher in the early 1980's.

Yes, for a short while they were. (uh, oh I agreed with you) But the situation has changed in the Middle East where the world gets most of its oil. We have now alienated the people there with the Iraqi hunt for Weapons of Mass Destruction that never were and our continuing occupation of an arab country that has made it impossible for even our allies (well at least those we could intimidate) to support anything less than the highest oil prices lest their people rebel against their leaders. All predictions point to oil prices as being permanently higher. Plus the complete lack of government support for conservation has increased the demand for oil, raising the prices

Home Ownership. The highest in history.

Gee are you going to claim credit for the "largest population in our history"? So now we are not only getting screwed you claim credit for us screwing?

Job Growth This doesn't matter to someone who already has a job. Besides .. jobs are being created right and left right now.

Wrong twice. Unemployment forces down ALL wages. People who have jobs are afraid of losing them. And of course who cares that your wife or son can't get a job as long as you have one? Well, you do.
Jobs are NOT being created left and right. One month of 300,000? When adjusted for workers returning form striking and the usual seasonal growth of warmer weather in the construction industry their were about 230,000 jobs created. Which was the AVERAGE monthly rate for the EIGHT full years before Bush. And we lost and average of 69,000 per month in the three years prior. Do the math, how many years til we just get back to even? And of course we need 125,000 new jobs a month for younger workers entering the workplace over the number retiring. Now thats MISERABLE.

Personal Bankruptcies. A bankruptcy doesn't make me miserable unless the person declaring bankruptcy owes me money.

By that bizarre logic if half the country dies in a plague it shouldn't concern me as long as I am healthy. But to the person who has the plague, just like the person declaring bankruptcy that is Miserable.

The answer, of course, is that most of the people who are reporting on Kerry's ridiculous index are people who want to see Kerry win in November.

Yes, of course. This time I agree with you completey. But you don't get off that easy. Why shouldn't a Presidential candidate point out the economic failures of the incumbent? Especially when the incumbent runs 200 million dollars worth of ads that tout "home ownership is at an all time high"? And uses the IRS for political propaganda?

The real lesson to be learned here is that Kerry is campaigning on misery. His election hinges on whether or not he can convince voters that they are really not quite so happy and comfortable as they think they are.

Apparently Bushes 200 million dollars can't convince people that they are really happier and more comfortable than they are.
And last I looked when the economy causes millions misery any candidate had sure better point that out to the electorate or else he doesn't deserve to win.

So there.

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Originally Posted by techs

Apparently Bushes 200 million dollars can't convince people that they are really happier and more comfortable than they are.
And last I looked when the economy causes millions misery any candidate had sure better point that out to the electorate or else he doesn't deserve to win.

So there.

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Bush hasn't spent all $200 million yet, give him time, he might just convince even you... :thumbs:

Of everyone that I know, everyone is working and making good money. So where is the misery? Oh, right, the dumba$$ on Kerry's ad that can't find a job, "it's been over a year now". Well, you can't blame that on the president. The jobs are there, you just can't keep holding out for the dream position, or go out golfing every day for the first six months after you were laid off. Sounds to me more like the guy lacks *****ion.

A friend started a new job, and got fired in the first week for goofing off. Couldn’t go back to the place that he left, they already replaced him. In less then a month he found a job 1500 miles away from here, so he packed up his wife and kids and moved. It wasn’t easy, but his *****ion paid off, and he is doing just fine. The only person he blames is himself for losing the other job in the first week…

You have to take a lot in to perspective here too, and I see your side of the story, there are jobs in large numbers disappearing in certain industries, and at those times it’s hard. 2500 people in the same town, doing the same work, all laid off at the same time…really hurts the area, and there are just not enough jobs to recuperate, without some people moving elsewhere, or changing careers. But you also have to put into perspective the flip side, and take the whole thing in context. You are reading the worst of the Kerry campaign against Bush, and I am reading the best of Bush’s. The truth is somewhere in the middle…

And btw I think the Misery Index is not a really good idea. I understand that it was an attempt to emphasize the Bush economic failures and keep them in the news. But it really may go down with the "WIN" program of President Ford. Anyone remember "Whip Inflation Now"?

Agreed Jaxson.

Techs, anymore campaigning and you can campaign elsewhere.... cappiche?